It's a wide open contest this week, where Alexander Levy heads the market ahead of Shubhankar Sharma who goes in search of his third win this season. Based on form, the Indian looks sure to contend here where hitting greens could be key. Big hitters should also fair well here and I expect a very low scoring affair, and with the weather forecast indicating little wind this week, it could be very low. With Qatar Masters following next week, it would be good to see the market in play for Qatar throughout this event too as I expect those playing well this week to follow up in Doha. Whilst Doha nearly always provides the wind, players with form at Doha will be chomping at the bit for the fortnight ahead. That idea, makes me look firstly at next week's defending champion, Jeunghun Wang @ 34.00.
The South Korean disappointed in KL but was in superb form in The Middle East last month finishing 6th in Dubai and 15th in Abu Dhabi. A three time winner on the tour, Wang's victories in Morocco, Mauritius and Qatar suggest he is one to perform on courses close to the sea (although Royal Golf Dar Es Salem was more parkland than these) and with strong showings in much better fields last month in the region, his game looks good to produce another solid effort this week. He defends next week so hopefully he approaches this week rekindling fond memories of his victory. His price represents value for me, I had him @ 23.00!
Marc Warren hasn't settled into consistent form yet, but has shown glimpses that he could any week now. He's been poor so far in 2018 and in complete opposite to Wang, missed both cuts in Dubai & Abu Dhabi last month. He did string 4 solid results together last Autumn when finishing 2-15-4-10 at The Portugal Masters, British Masters, Alfred Dunhill Links and The Italian Open. Al Mouj, despite the lack of wind forecasted, is a links-style course so given his prowess for this type of course, the 126.00 e/w offer is very tempting and he makes the staking plan.
I've thought long and hard over the chances of Tapio Pullkanen, Bradley Dredge, Darren Fichardt and Charlie Ford this week too. The Welshman hasn't been in great form but his results in the past 6-9 months show his only decent efforts to be had at Portstewart (Irish Open) and The Alfred Dunhill Links, both links setups. 7.00 for a TOP-20 is worth looking at, as so is the 10.00 for a T-20 from Charlie Ford. The Englishman has played here twice albeit with mixed results but he's in form of late having finished 8th & 11th in South Africa last month.
I had my eye on this event for Gavin Moynihan for awhile now, in the anticipation that he would make his mark on tour here, and having spent a couple of weeks out in Dubai practicing last month, I was hoping the wind would be up to complement his chances. He went to Perth last week but never fired, however, Al Mouj will be more the Dubliner's cup of tea than Karrinyup. Honing his game at The Island GC in Donabate, Co. Dublin, Gavin has limited starts on tour this year and will be anxious to perform well on courses that suit his game. Having played here on the Challenge Tour last year and finishing 20th, he will arrive somewhat more positive despite the efforts at Karrinyup. Since turning pro, Gavin has played 5 links or links style courses,(by my calculations) finishing 14-47-6-6-20. The 14th & 47th placings netted him in excess of €100k from The Irish Open & Alfred Dunhill Links. If driving well this week, Moynihan has all the skills to make a decent score and @15.00 for a TOP-20 available, it would be rude not to have some investment. He may also be worth chancing a back to lay on the exchange.
If I'm looking at the course type credentials of Gavin Moynihan, I should be weighing up the chances of Soren Kjeldsen, Richie Ramsay, Eddie Pepperell, Richard Sterne, Jamie Donaldson and Chris Wood. I could throw in the likes of Robert Rock and Stephen Gallacher not to mention Joost Luiten as well. Chris Wood is an interesting runner this week, his price is big but perhaps reflects recent injury concerns and slow return to form.A former winner in Qatar, Wood will be looking to ignite his season the next fortnight. However, I'll look to include some of these in my DFS teams at Playon and /or Draftkings this week.
Staking Plan
1.00 pts e/w J. Wang @34.00
1.00 pts e/w M. Warren @ 126.00
2.00 pts T-20 C. Ford @ 10.00
2.00 pts T-20 G. Moynihan @ 15.00
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